Source GEFIRA, through Zerohedge,
A change in demographic trends takes 50 year before they become plainly visible. The decline in fertility in the sixties started to become visible after 50 years.
Cerberus, our population simulator, shows with scientific precision that the replacement of the European society has started, and within 50 years it will be visible and irreversible.
Since the seventies of the previous century, the Western societies have not produced enough offspring to keep their communities growing. The fertility rate (i.e. the average number of children per woman) is far below 2.1. i.e. the level of replacement. A population with a higher rate will grow while a population with a lower rate will shrink. As it is, the Western and Japanese societies will begin to implode 40 years from the moment their fertility rate dropped, and this demographic winter, as this phenomenon is sometimes called, will affect the world more profoundly than the climate change, so politicians and investors should take notice.
According to official state data the Swedish, French and Dutch populations will keep growing for the foreseeable future despite their low fertility rates. Western politicians seem to be taking great pleasure in the population decline in Russia, but shouldn’t they first bother about their own turf? How e.g. is it possible that the number of residents the Netherlands keeps growing if the number of the newborns is smaller and smaller?
To get an insight into the European situation the Gefira team performed the computation, and developed Cerberus 2.0, a software tool that, using copious amounts of demographic data provided by the Central Bureaus of Statistics, simulates the population development.
Cerberus, making use of the CBS Dutch Central Bureau of Statistics data, calculates how many people died and were born for every consecutive year from 1950 till 2100 and then creates a hypothetical Dutch population growth model without migration. This model overlaps with the official data up to 1980 (blue line in Figure 1 below). In the sixties, the Netherlands had an emigration surplus, i.e. more people left the country than arrived, while in the seventies the so-called mass immigration set in and the process was reversed…